Liquidity Black Hole

November 19th, 2008 by John Nelson Leave a reply »

On November 13th, the SPY dropped bellow $840, and then catapulted to $900 for a monstrous gain by the days end. I believe that catapult could have been caused by, in unison, investors covering margin calls for leveraged long positions and short sellers covering as the rise grew stronger. I have very little empirical evidence of this and it is sufficiently weak to prohibit me, out of embarrassment, from posting it.

I bought NOV 83 put options on SPY earlier today at $2.20. This time around, I believe their will be A LOT of sellers and no buyers. Alternatively, if it does not fall into a liquidity black hole, I see very little upside between now and Friday close.

I used 1% of my capital on this play.

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