Comments for Path Dependent

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by Georgi

Georgi — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 22:05:08 +0000

I think you might want to go through Peter Bernstein’s Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, especially the last chapters that deal in a great detail with the rise of automatic systems and their place in the financial spectrum.
Putting things in a perspective, he argues that there is no universal algorithm that can beat the market consistently. However, a good algorithm and an experienced trader who bases his decisions on the predictions and on his own sentiment make a difference. The point is that models stay models, while the reality changes, the world evolves through uncertainty that cannot be captured, hence the need of humans in the business..

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by cstirone

cstirone — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 16:25:13 +0000

Why not consider going the “rule-based discretionary trader” route? Dr. Van Tharp has stated that most successful traders he has known are of this type, not purely mechanical. I would argue that your brain is still superior to any program (except at very small timeframes requiring very rapid execution). Also, entries are not that important. It is your exits and position sizing that determine profitability. I cannot emphasize this enough…

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by a web dev

a web dev — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 18:00:16 +0000

In a gold rush you can either 1) pan for gold or 2) sell a “Prospector Package” composing of all the needed tools to pan for gold or 3) be the gold rush.

The first option is like trying to win the lottery (what you are doing now), the second option is where most of the real money is, and the third option is of course creating the gold rush and the system that profits from it.

You’ve done #1. Now you should move on to #2. And maybe in another 10 years you’ll figure out how to do #3.

But whatever you do, stop this nonsense of trying to beat the system; you have no advantages over it.

Work it, or create it, but don’t get worked by it.

Comment on Apple Owns Your Harddrive by Daniel Hepper

Daniel Hepper — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 14:08:49 +0000

Dell offers an option to keep your hard drive when it has to be exchanged under warranty. IIRC, it was 9 € in Germany. That seems fair to me.

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by TW Andrews

TW Andrews — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 13:42:01 +0000

You would have been better off just trying to get a job at Reniassance Technologies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies).

They’ve found the “Print Money” formula and have been using it for the last 20 years.

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by Phil

Phil — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 13:12:05 +0000

You haven’t contributed anything to society. You haven’t created anything of value. Beyond your sense of entitlement how do you figure you’ve earned a reward?

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by altalt

altalt — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 13:09:01 +0000

i think to play the markets you also have to be able to “play the people” its not all numbers and books, u have to understand people’s psychology too i think, because to buy or sell is a decision people make not just logically i think… so its just a question of seeing all the variable. So i would say just keep trying cause if u get it right u could be unbelievably rich!! and u will have fun doing it since u say u r fascinated by the whole thing… so jut keep at it thats the most beautiful thing you can do.

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by Anenome

Anenome — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 09:29:49 +0000

Have you seen the movie “Pi”? >_>

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by Jose

Jose — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 09:06:27 +0000

I think you can’t beat the market, you can win a battle but not the war. The “market” is just people, you can’t win over the big boys, they have better means and fiscal laws than you.

If you discover something new, your knowledge will be “in the other side” in little time when you make it public(you will if it is valuable), and you will “change” the market, so your rule doesn’t work anymore.

Of course yes you can win over the bast majority of the population. They don’t know what they are doing. But is that ethical or moral? Not for me.

There are two kinds of ways to make money in stock market. Creating wealth or helping other people to do it with your capital(the slow way 10-20%interest per year)or taking other people’s lunch(much faster). This is just stealing other people work and savings over their entire lives in my opinion.

As Buffet said: all the markets have a fool, if you don’t know who he is, odds are it’s you!

I had made money in the stock market with good investments (doubled it in value a few times), and could had benefited from things I knew were going to happen before they burst, like the EU crisis with derivatives, but I didn’t want to. I just want my savings not loose all their value with the inflation.

I will be rich but at the same time miserable. I’m spending my time trying to improve other people lives, and somewhat this is what makes me rich and happy.

What do you want all this money? For expensive hookers? For your ego? For traveling the world alone or semi-alone(someone that cares more about your money than you). For being the richest in the cemetery?

Just curiosity.

Comment on I May Be A Complete Failure by Jouni Osmala

Jouni Osmala — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 06:16:05 +0000

One thing also.
The playing on wall street is zero sum game, where you try to extract as much wealth to you while your gain is other peoples loss.
Creating some new product, is a win-win situation.