Posts Tagged ‘failing’

I May Be A Complete Failure

June 27th, 2010

I have spent the better part of my intellectually conscious life trying to algorithmically “beat the market.” (To be precise, I started around age seventeen; I am now twenty-five.) According to some very well-tested academic theories regarding markets, I am pursuing a fool’s-dream. I have continued to labor this long under the assumption that there is a pretty obvious selection problem when it comes to publishing findings that contradict financial orthodoxy: if you were to find a method that earned out-sized returns, I don’t believe academic prestige trumps monetary gains. It is my perception that people who end up as professors of finance are typically people who had the desire to study markets in order to profit from them, but who never found their holy grail. If they had found something spectacular, I don’t think the incentive to publish is very high. (There are exceptions, but nothing ground-breaking.)

After eight years, I have nothing concrete to show for my efforts. As a consequence of shifting needs, I have learned a lot of computer science (e.g. compiler design, algorithms, and some unnecessarily high number of languages). Obviously, this skill set is valuable, but I have no successful projects to use as credentials. Every few months, I find myself excited over the preliminary results of my increasingly sophisticated simulations, only to be disappointed a few short weeks later to find that I was simply wrong. This has happened so many times that I no longer grow excited when I see positive results — I’ve grown into a hardened, semi-depersonalized skeptic.

My latest iteration of development appears exceptionally promising, but I expect it to bear no fruits. I learn each time, and my understanding of markets (and complex systems in general) is approaching some level of refinement, but I have no way of estimating when I might cross the line into profitability; worse I may be approaching this level asymptotically, with my limitations acting as a ceiling just below my goal. I feel like a modern day Tantalus.

I recognize that “beating the market” algorithmically may be either impossible or simply out of my reach, but I soldier on because I still find it fascinating. I believe that, had I switched course years ago, writing off the project as foolish, I would have probably, or at least possibly, been wealthy by other means by now. (Every time I started pursuing a product development project, I found myself shifting back towards market soon after the initial new project euphoria had faded.) If I could offer advise to my younger self, prior to perusing this path, I’d probably say don’t make the attempt. I have neither ethical nor moral objections to profiting by speculation. I merely believe I could have acquired the satisfaction that comes from achievement a long time ago, instead of bearing the frustration that accompanies not achieving something in spite of my best efforts. Nonetheless, I will not stop trying. I’m not blind to the possibility that I am a smart fool, but I want this more than anything else. I’m not sure where I would draw the line, where I would finally say giving up is the proper thing to do. I hope I never have to make that decision. I hope success finally obliterates the need for that decision.

I’m not sure why I wrote this. To some degree, it might be a warning notice to those who are considering following this path. As I said, I find markets fascinating, but most people (my earlier self included) enter the fray believing it to be a sure and short path to riches; it’s not. There are far less risky paths to wealth, especially for entrepreneurial programmers.

Perpetual Motion, Hacking, and the Contemporary Philospher’s Stone

October 29th, 2009

Perpetual Motion

At age thirteen, I invented a perpetual motion device. Obviously, I was a genius. Recognizing the magnitude of my discovery, I decided to patent the machine in order to capture the associated rewards. Years of groping through Popular Science magazine — it was my pre-pubescent version of pornography — meant I knew where to find patent lawyers: pages -1 through page -5.

Excitedly, I called the patent attorney that seemed to be the most affordable. I confidently declared that I had invented a perpetual motion machine and required a patent. The attorney did not seem impressed. Apparently, I was not the first person to try and patent a perpetual motion device. In hindsight,  I am willing to bet that patent attorneys who advertise with Popular Science magazine are continuously flooded with similar claims. After signaling irritation that was detectable even to a thirteen year old, she informed me that she would send the requisite forms but could not proceed without a fully functional prototype to submit as evidence. Apparently, this guy named Newton did not think perpetual motion was possible, so the patent office was not very liberal in awarding patents for such inventions (anymore).

I proceeded immediately. First, I spent my accumulated birthday money on magnets from Edmund’s Scientific. Next, I used K’NEX to build the scaffolding for a ring of magnets that would surround the central magnetic rotor. When the magnets arrived, I hastily lashed them to my plastic toys and and let ‘er rip. The magnet slowly swung around before settling in at the weakest point of the rings magnetic field.

Frustrated, I retrenched and thought about what had gone wrong. I was able to deduce that the magnetic fields of the independent magnets become part of a system when joined with the other magnets. They would not independently push the rotor — it didn’t work like that. However, committed to my brilliance, I thought of various ways to work around the problem such as using the momentum of half-filled water canisters to overcome the “humps”. Obviously, I did not overturn the laws of the universe. My idea may have been naive, but I learned a lot about systems while enjoying the exhilaration of experimentation. This experience may have had a major impact on my life.

Hacking

When I was young (before my attempt at overturning the laws of the universe), I asked my father to help me learn how to program. Since these were the days of DOS and Norton Commander, QBasic was to be my playground. Although I learned basic programming logic, I did not progress far enough to be capable of implementing a Gorrillas clone. Sadly, given my age, I enjoyed the instantaneous rewards associated with sports more than the personal satisfaction offered by solving problems with computers. My growth as a programmer was arrested.

Then came the movie Hacker’s. Hacker’s resurrected my interest in programming. Hacker’s — with the help of a young Angelina Jolie — gave programming sex appeal. It became my ambition to become ‘Cereal Killer’ (seriously, Zero Cool/Crash Override was boring).

This happened to be the same era of AOL ‘proggies’ and ICQ. For about six months, a friend and I ran a site called The Digital Underground that was a AOL themed repository while also releasing our own 133t apps. We were cool. We knew it.

That lasted for at most nine months. That is roughly the intellectual half-life of VB, even to a young programmer. I left that world behind and ventured out to C, C++,  and Python. Using better tools, I made applications that were reasonably complex and much more rewarding: spam-bots.

Now, I was a h4×0r. Around freshman year of high school, I was making 1-2k a week working after school. This was when I started hating school. Partially because my after-school work was much more intellectually challenging and mostly because I was making “bank”.

Fortunately, my career in spam was not to be. After a little more than a year, my parents had caught on — they did not approve. This shifted my efforts to a more worthwhile and exponentially more challenging arena: markets.

The Contemporary Philosopher’s Stone

I think reading Matt Ridley’s, The Origins of Virtue, in 9th grade seeded my intellectual development (thanks, Mr. Ridley). I became fasinated with complex systems like Conway’s Game of Life, Rule 30, ants, and Axelrod. Nothing was more interesting to me than Cellular Automata, ANN’s, PSO, and genetic algorithms. Soon, I realized there was a potentially practical application. With spamming out of the way, I now combined all my interests: programming, complex systems, and trying to do the supposedly impossible. I set out to beat the market.

This is not a huge leap from my past projects. There are strong parallels between perpetual motion and trying to overcome the efficient market hypothesis. And, just like with past projects, my efforts led to procuring new tools. At various stages in the past eight years (I am still pursuing this path), I have become proficient or better in ASM x86, C, C++, Java, Lua, Perl, Python, Ruby, Lisp, Erlang, PHP (front-end), Pascal, and Haskell. I have reproduced many popular financial models while trying to understand and improve them. This was all far more rigorous than that I was being exposed to in school (undergrad) at the time.

This brings me to now. I have spent the past 8 years trying to come up with an algorithm that finds pockets of profitability in a cloud of probable randomness. This has given me what I believe is a powerful understanding of complex systems. Complex systems modeled on computers have become my contemporary Legos — and, I want to play all day long.

In all likelihood, I will not make a breakthrough discovery. The fog that is my ambition may be obscuring reality. I am exploring an alternate area of the landscape of solutions. I may be hill-climbing a local unexplored minima — but hold out because of the potential for maxima. However, f*ck it. I want to spend my time doing what I enjoy most.

Hello, Unemployment. Goodbye, Savings.

October 29th, 2009

I just sent the following letter of resignation. I did not want to quit now, nor is it an opportune time. I have approximately 4-5 months of savings. Considering the project I must implement will take 3-5 months — and will provide me with no income even after it is finished — I am pretty much parachuting without a net. Weeeeeeeee.

Dear Redacted,

Unfortunately, fundraising at the derivative of the non-profit organization that I started has been declining sharply. In the past few months, the amount raised is far lower than we require. This stagnation may be a reflection of some progress made or cyclical constituent fatigue. In either case, given the general state of funding for rare diseases right now, it threatens to arrest research progress that I am hoping will translate into improved clinical outcomes…soon.

While I happily shifted responsibility onto the willing members of the Chordoma Foundation and folded my established organization into their nascent one a few years ago, I believe I have to shoulder some of the burden again. Last year, I wrote an application that would serve small organizations with highly-motivated potential beneficiaries. It worked very well initially. However, due to mistakes in the design that were entirely my own, it has soured some of the fund-raisers and needs to be corrected. I have been trying to do a rewrite after work each day, but the context switching is proving to be an obstacle. Half of my time is spent recalling work I have already done. Consequently, I have been sacrificing good-practices in order to churn something out. I produced a mediocre product last year; I cannot afford to do so again. A high-quality, distributable product will require a full-time effort for 3-4 months.

While it was my intention to remain at Redacted in my current capacity while pursuing a PH.D in experimental economics hopefully starting next fall (more precisely, experimental economics with a strong focus on agent-based simulations), this does not seem to be an option anymore. I thoroughly enjoy Redacted, but I reluctantly must resign.

I will stay on until a suitable replacement can be found.

Sincerely,
John B Nelson